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The World This Week – 23rd October – 30th October 2020.

Indian Equity Summary-

Ø In the past week, Indian Markets encountered highly volatile movements and settled in a negative territory with losses of more than 2 percent week on week, taking cues from global stock market which remained cautious as rising coronavirus virus in America and Europe, the delay in the second US stimulus package has made investors wary of the situation. As the Tug of War between bulls and bears kept the markets shaky on the basis of mixed signals from the global front, Nifty indices saw trade in a wider range from 11550-11950. We expect uncertainty to grip the market in the coming sessions, as well as in the aftermath of the U.S. election.

Ø Going forward, global factors like development on the US elections front, US /China relations , and domestic factors like ongoing Q2 corporate earnings season, supreme court moratorium decisions and FII/DII inflows and USD/INR rates ; will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 11600-12,200 in the near term. However, the index may resume its bearish bias if it breaches and sustains below 11600-11650 levels in future sessions.

Indian Debt Market

Ø The Government bond prices ended lower on a WoW basis. The yield on the 10-year benchmark 5.77% 2030 paper settled at 5.88% on October 29 compared with 5.84% on October 23.

Ø Reserve Bank of India announces the auction of Government of India Treasury Bills for INR16,000cr on Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Ø The Government of India has announced the Scheme for grant of ex-gratia payment of difference between compound interest and simple interest for six months to borrowers in specified loan accounts (1.3.2020 to 31.8.2020) (the ‘Scheme’) on October 23, 2020, which mandates ex-gratia payment to certain categories of borrowers by way of crediting the difference between simple interest and compound interest for the period between March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020 by respective lending institutions.

Ø We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.05% in near term.

 

Domestic News

Ø India’s eight infrastructure sectors drifted closer to expansionary territory in September as contraction narrowed to 0.8 per cent. The production of eight core sectors had contracted 5.1% in September 2019. The decline in output during the month under review was the lowest since March.

Ø India's fiscal deficit widened to INR 9.139 trillion in April-September 2020-21 from INR 6.515 trillion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. That was equivalent to 114.8 percent of the government’s budget estimate for this financial year, much higher than 92.6 percent a year earlier

Ø The Indian rupee touched 74.5 against the US dollar, the weakest level since August 25th, as rising coronavirus cases across the globe, fresh lockdowns in Europe and uncertainty surrounding the US November election spooked investor appetite for risk assets.

 

International News

Ø France’s economy rebounds 18.2% in the third quarter: Statistics office. Nevertheless, economic output was “sharply lower than it had been before the crisis,” with GDP down by 4.3 percent on a year-on-year basis, the statisticians calculated in preliminary data.

Ø Coronavirus second wave douses hopes of German economic recovery. Analysts from financial information service Factset have predicted a rebound of 7.4 percent in July to September after a plunge of almost 10 percent during the second quarter

Ø British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a second national lockdown in England starting Thursday as coronavirus cases surge.

Ø US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020.In the second quarter, realGDP decreased 31.4 percent. Economists had expected GDPto soar by 31.0 percent

Ø European Central Bank left its key interest rates and massive stimulus unchanged citing a highly uncertain outlook amid a resurgence in the Covid19 pandemic, and hinted at a move in December .when the latest set of macroeconomic projections will be available.

 

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. Karvy Private Wealth is only a distributor of securities and financial market products 

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