Indian Equity Summary-
·
Global and domestic equity markets remained
tepid on the back of rising concerns about the rapid spread of Covid-19. Indian
benchmarkØ
indices extended losses for the seventh consecutive week as the BSE Sensex and
Nifty 50 fell 7.46% and 6.66% respectively .Investor sentiments were also
dented by the downgrading of India's growth forecast by Fitch ratings for the
current fiscal to a 30-year low of 2 per cent, from 5.1 per cent projected
earlier. Sector indices like Oil & Gas, Healthcare and FMCG were the only
gainers amongst all the other major sectoral indices.
·
On the positive side a rise in coal, cement and
electricity production, India's eight infrastructure industries expanded at an
11-month high inØ
February, while the Met had forecasted that the southwest monsoon is likely to
get a boost this year, as the El Nino, which sometimes disrupts the rainfall,
is unlikely this year. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 7800 -9000
in the near term.
Indian Debt Market-
·
Government bond prices ended weaker, Yield of
the 10 year benchmark 6.45% 2029 paper settled at 6.31% on April 3 as against
6.14% onØ
March27
·
Bonds prices fell sharply on concerns about a
heavy government borrowing amid a nationwide lockdown diminishing the trading
activity inØ the
domestic financial markets.
·
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced the third
targeted long-term repo operation (TLTRO) for Rs 25,000 crore to be conducted
on April 7.Ø
·
The Centre notified that it would borrow a total
Rs 4,88,000 crore via issuance of dated securities over the April to September
2020.Ø
·
We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade
between 6.15-6.40% in near term with a downward bias.
Domestic News
·
The IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.8 in March as against 54.5 in February.Ø
·
India’s eight infrastructure sectors grew at an
11-month high of 5.5% on year in February compared with 1.4% in January.Ø
·
The World Bank approved a $1 billion emergency
financing for India to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.Ø
SØ&P
Global Ratings cut its forecast on India’s economic growth to 3.5% for fiscal
2021 from 5.2% earlier.
·
India’s fiscal deficit for April 2019 to
February 2020 touched 135.2% of the revised target of 3.8% of GDP for the
fiscal.Ø
·
Goods and Services Tax collections for March
came in at Rs 97,597 crore, lower than Rs 1.05 lakh crore collected in
February.Ø
·
The Government of India recorded a shortfall in
its direct tax collections of Rs 1.75 lakh crore as compared with the revised
estimates and hasØ
collected Rs 9.98 lakh crore as direct taxes during fiscal 2020.
·
The Union government plans to borrow Rs 4.88
lakh crore, 62.6 percent of its total borrowing, during the first half of the
current fiscal.
International News
·
US Institute of Supply Management (ISM)
manufacturing index dipped to 49.1 in March after edging down to 50.1 in
February.Ø
·
Jobless claims of around 6.65 million were filed
in US in the week ended March 28, being more than double the claims filed in
the prior weekØ i.e
.3.31 million as per the US Labor Department, around
·
UK IHS Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 in
March, down from 51.7 in February .As a result of weak production activity,
Britain’s FTSE fellØ by
0.6%.
·
UK economic growth expanded 1.1% annually in
fourth quarter of calendar 2019 compared with 1.3% growth in the third quarter.Ø
·
UK GfK consumer confidence saw the sharpest
plunge and fell to -7 in March as compared to -9 in February amid Coronavirus
lockdown.
·
China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 52 in
March from 35.7 in February while non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.3 in March
fromØ 29.6 in February.
·
China Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in
March from 40.3 in February.
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