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THE WORLD THIS WEEK 27th March – 3rd April 2020


Indian Equity Summary-
·         Global and domestic equity markets remained tepid on the back of rising concerns about the rapid spread of Covid-19. Indian benchmarkØ indices extended losses for the seventh consecutive week as the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 7.46% and 6.66% respectively .Investor sentiments were also dented by the downgrading of India's growth forecast by Fitch ratings for the current fiscal to a 30-year low of 2 per cent, from 5.1 per cent projected earlier. Sector indices like Oil & Gas, Healthcare and FMCG were the only gainers amongst all the other major sectoral indices. 
·         On the positive side a rise in coal, cement and electricity production, India's eight infrastructure industries expanded at an 11-month high inØ February, while the Met had forecasted that the southwest monsoon is likely to get a boost this year, as the El Nino, which sometimes disrupts the rainfall, is unlikely this year. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 7800 -9000 in the near term.
Indian Debt Market- 
·         Government bond prices ended weaker, Yield of the 10 year benchmark 6.45% 2029 paper settled at 6.31% on April 3 as against 6.14% onØ March27 
·         Bonds prices fell sharply on concerns about a heavy government borrowing amid a nationwide lockdown diminishing the trading activity inØ the domestic financial markets. 
·         Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced the third targeted long-term repo operation (TLTRO) for Rs 25,000 crore to be conducted on April 7.Ø 
·         The Centre notified that it would borrow a total Rs 4,88,000 crore via issuance of dated securities over the April to September 2020.Ø 
·         We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 6.15-6.40% in near term with a downward bias.
Domestic News
·         The IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.8 in March as against 54.5 in February.Ø 
·         India’s eight infrastructure sectors grew at an 11-month high of 5.5% on year in February compared with 1.4% in January.Ø 
·         The World Bank approved a $1 billion emergency financing for India to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.Ø  SØ&P Global Ratings cut its forecast on India’s economic growth to 3.5% for fiscal 2021 from 5.2% earlier. 
·         India’s fiscal deficit for April 2019 to February 2020 touched 135.2% of the revised target of 3.8% of GDP for the fiscal.Ø 
·         Goods and Services Tax collections for March came in at Rs 97,597 crore, lower than Rs 1.05 lakh crore collected in February.Ø 
·         The Government of India recorded a shortfall in its direct tax collections of Rs 1.75 lakh crore as compared with the revised estimates and hasØ collected Rs 9.98 lakh crore as direct taxes during fiscal 2020. 
·         The Union government plans to borrow Rs 4.88 lakh crore, 62.6 percent of its total borrowing, during the first half of the current fiscal.
International News 
·         US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index dipped to 49.1 in March after edging down to 50.1 in February.Ø 
·         Jobless claims of around 6.65 million were filed in US in the week ended March 28, being more than double the claims filed in the prior weekØ i.e .3.31 million as per the US Labor Department, around 
·         UK IHS Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 in March, down from 51.7 in February .As a result of weak production activity, Britain’s FTSE fellØ by 0.6%. 
·         UK economic growth expanded 1.1% annually in fourth quarter of calendar 2019 compared with 1.3% growth in the third quarter.Ø 
·         UK GfK consumer confidence saw the sharpest plunge and fell to -7 in March as compared to -9 in February amid Coronavirus lockdown.
·         China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 52 in March from 35.7 in February while non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.3 in March fromØ 29.6 in February. 
·         China Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in March from 40.3 in February.

Know more at http://www.karvywealth.com/data/sites/1/skins/karvywealth/Download_media_report.aspx?FileName=D5779F64-9AEC-4C54-A498-B1B0E5A6552F|5166798

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